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  • So I have 2 rounds. Each have a 10% crit chance. What would my chance to land both as crits and one as a crit. Thanks to whoever posts the equation to find this.

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    • well with a 10% crit baseline, you have 1/10th a chance to crit. Multishot adds a second bullet, but it has it's own chances calculated. Thus you have 2 1/10th chance to crit once, or a 1/5th chance to crit once. To doublecrit you would have 1/20th chance. These would be probabilities.

      The equasion would be dividing the number of favorable outcomes with the number of possible outcomes. We have 2 favorable out of 10 possible for a chance for one crit, while 1 favorable out of 20 possible for doublecrit.

      Odds would be 1 : 4 for single crit and 1 : 19 for doublecrit.

      Odds from probability is: O = P/(1-P), while probability from odds is P = O/(O+1)

      Percentages would be 20% chance to crit once, 5% chance to doublecrit.

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    • Thats not how probability works. To calculate the crit chances, we look at the two scenarios: Only one crit occurs, or both shots crit. For a single crit to occur, one shot has to crit while the other does not.

      The single bullet crit probability is 0.1(10% crit) * 0.9(90% non-crit) which equals 0.09 (9%) occurence rate. We double this to 18% because this probability is applied twice, one for each bullet. Thus, the probability of a single shot critting with only one bullet is 18%.

      The Double bullet crit probability is 0.1(10% crit) * 0.1(10% crit) which equals to 0.01(1%) occurence rate. Meaning only 1% of shots will have both bullet crit.

      Total probability comes down to 19% for any crit to occur, 18% for only one crit, and 1% for double crit.

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    • NeithanDiniem
      NeithanDiniem removed this reply because:
      removing by own choice
      18:30, October 15, 2015
      This reply has been removed
    • 159.153.138.79 wrote:
      Total probability comes down to 19% for any crit to occur, 18% for only one crit, and 1% for double crit.

      I now understand where I had gone wrong in my calculations, I didnt look at binomial distributions for this, but that 19% for any crit seems to be off. Since it is a 10% chance for each bullet to crit once, and in this instance we aren't caring if the other bullet crits or not, the total possible chance for any crit is still 20%. Doublecrit would be included in that as well, would it not? It is 2 independant 0.1 crits, not (one bullet's 0.1 crit chance * the other bullet's 0.9 not crit chance) * number of bullets + the doublecrit chance.

      If Im wrong on this one Id like to see the work for that one spelled out then.

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    • The problem here is that you are looking at individual probablilities without consideration of subsequent events. For the single crit scenario we actually do care about whether or not the other bullet crits because if we don't take that into account it will overlap with the double crit probability.

      Let's put this another way. By your reasoning of individual probability, if I flip two coins of which I have a 50% chance of getting a head on each, I should be able to get at least 1 head 100% of the time if I flip both coins since 50% + 50% = 100%. Common sense tells us that is not true as if I were to flip a coin twice in real life, I am not guaranteed a head in one of them. A simpler way of understanding this is to look at the reverse of what if we don't get any head? This means getting two tails which is 50% * 50% which comes to 25%. Probability then dictates that since we have a 25% chance of not getting any heads, then it must mean a 75% chance of getting at least one head.

      If we apply the above to the crit scenario, we should ask instead of what is the probability of getting no criticals? This means 90% * 90% for no crits which equals to 81%. Conversely this means there is a 19% chance of getting any crit. Since we know only 1% are double crits, that means the remaining 18% are single crits.

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    • Realistically it would have two seperate 10% crit chances.

      If you really want the chance to get one or more crits as a single number, it would be critC + (100-critC)*0.9*critC  = 10 + 90*0.9*0.1 =  18.1%

      Disclaimer: i dont have any clue how probability works, but this seems completely accurate.

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    • Rhionhi wrote:
      Realistically it would have two seperate 10% crit chances.

      If you really want the chance to get one or more crits as a single number, it would be critC + (100-critC)*0.9*critC  = 10 + 90*0.9*0.1 =  18.1%

      Disclaimer: i dont have any clue how probability works, but this seems completely accurate.

      Probability can be combined to calculate for certain events, in this case we can manipulate two seperate events (seperate crits) into a single probability of some value.

      Your formula doesn't make much sense to me. I have no idea what it represents.

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    • critC + (100-critC)*0.9*critC  = 10 + 90*0.9*0.1 =  18.1%

      Critical hit chance + ( 100% - Critical hit chance [ the leftover chance for the first hit not being a crit ] ) * 0.9 ( split chamber activation rate) * 0.1 ( your critical hit chance) = 18.1

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    • So the overall equasion would be C+(100-C)*([M*C]/100), yes?

      C=crit %, M=multishot %

      So for instance, with the Hek + augment it would be 10+(100-10)*3.2*0.1 would be 38.8

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    • Darthmufin
      Darthmufin removed this reply because:
      .
      01:37, October 16, 2015
      This reply has been removed
    • Rhionhi wrote:
      critC + (100-critC)*0.9*critC  = 10 + 90*0.9*0.1 =  18.1%

      Critical hit chance + ( 100% - Critical hit chance [ the leftover chance for the first hit not being a crit ] ) * 0.9 ( split chamber activation rate) * 0.1 ( your critical hit chance) = 18.1


      If we take into account multi-shot chance, then your formula for this case is correct. What I stated earlier can be shortened to this with the following:

      0.1(non-multi) * 0.1(regular crit%) + 0.9(multi) * 0.19(cumulative crit% for multi) = 0.181

      (1-M)(C) + (M)(1-(1-C)^2)

      (1-M)(C) + (M)(1-(1-2C+C^2))

      (1-M)(C) + (M)(2C-C^2)

      C - CM + 2CM - MC^2

      C + CM - MC^2

      C(1 + M - MC)

      C(1 + M(1 - C))

      C + CM(1-C)

      Note that the last equation goes out the window if Multishot rate goes over 100%.

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    • Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 

      It calculates damage and proc stats, but not crit stats. This is because crit chances over 100% turns into possible red crits. If multishot is accounted for in the UI stat, then it would be confusing for users to determine if they can get red crits or not. In addition, the formulas in this thread only deals with when Multishot rate is within 100%. Another more complicated formula is required for multishots over 100%.

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    • Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 

      Sometimes I seriously do wonder, do you even play the game? We're talking about crits here.

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    • NeithanDiniem wrote:
      So the overall equasion would be C+(100-C)*([M*C]/100), yes?

      C=crit %, M=multishot %

      So for instance, with the Hek + augment it would be 10+(100-10)*3.2*0.1 would be 38.8

      Not quite, because multishot has gone well over 100%, that formula no longer works. For your example it would be like this:

      (3XMulti chance) * (3XMulti crit chance) + (4XMulti chance) * (4XMulti crit chance)

      (3XMulti chance) * (1 - (1 - C)^3) + (4XMulti chance) * (1 - (1 - C)^4)

      (0.8) * (1 - (1 - 0.1)^3) + (0.2) * (1 - (1 - 0.1)^4) = 0.28558

      The aggregated crit chance for a Hek with all multishot mod is therefore 28.558%.

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    • 37.136.92.155 wrote:
      Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 
      Sometimes I seriously do wonder, do you even play the game? We're talking about crits here.

      It is well known that he is still playing u10 warframe.

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    • Rhionhi wrote:
      37.136.92.155 wrote:
      Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 
      Sometimes I seriously do wonder, do you even play the game? We're talking about crits here.
      It is well known that he is still playing u10 warframe.

      and it's well known that you don't know what you are talking about. i was browsing through and i misread what the original post was about. 

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    • Darthmufin wrote:
      Rhionhi wrote:
      37.136.92.155 wrote:
      Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 
      Sometimes I seriously do wonder, do you even play the game? We're talking about crits here.
      It is well known that he is still playing u10 warframe.
      and it's well known that you don't know what you are talking about. i was browsing through and i misread what the original post was about. 

      Whenever I see you comment on anything, I'm pretty sure that you also misread goddamn everything.

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    • 37.136.92.155 wrote:
      Darthmufin wrote:
      Rhionhi wrote:
      37.136.92.155 wrote:
      Darthmufin wrote:
      dosn't the game's UI already do this for you? if you add multishot the stats go up. which is why when calculating damage, take off multishot to see the "real" damage per bullet. 
      Sometimes I seriously do wonder, do you even play the game? We're talking about crits here.
      It is well known that he is still playing u10 warframe.
      and it's well known that you don't know what you are talking about. i was browsing through and i misread what the original post was about. 
      Whenever I see you comment on anything, I'm pretty sure that you also misread goddamn everything.

      WTF GUYS. SRSLY?!

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    • If you had 100% multishot, it'd be 10% + 10%*90% thus 19% of having at least one critical (thus it includes every combination of 0+1, 1+0 and 1+1)

      BUT

      Since you can only have 90% multishot on rifles (which is what the OP asked) the probabilities might be a little bit less, something around 18.1% as some have suggested above, though I'm not so sure it'd be that precise. Anyway it'd be something between 18 and 19% for sure.

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    • Thank you all so much, I appreciate the help. If you wanted to see what exactly this was for go to: My Scratch program. Thanks!

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    • TL:DR Version

      Multishot doesn't seems to affect crit chance. Weapon crit chance is probably what the stat sheet says.


      Long Version

      This discussion leads me to believe that the description of multishot is misleading.

      "Multishot describes the number of pellets (bullets, projectiles, bolts, etc.) the weapon will fire per attack. While multishot is a feature normally encountered mainly on shotguns, it can be added to any weapon through mods, effectively allowing you to fire more bullets without consuming extra ammunition."

      The way I understand this, is that when you fire your weapon that instance of your shot has crit chance calculated... Meaning that regardless of how many projectiles come out of your gun the crit chance is calculated only once. Ex. You fire a sobek, all the pellets that land either crit or do not. There is no instance of some critting and some not critting.

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    • 69.250.72.144 wrote:
      TL:DR Version

      Multishot doesn't seems to affect crit chance. Weapon crit chance is probably what the stat sheet says.


      Long Version

      This discussion leads me to believe that the description of multishot is misleading.

      "Multishot describes the number of pellets (bullets, projectiles, bolts, etc.) the weapon will fire per attack. While multishot is a feature normally encountered mainly on shotguns, it can be added to any weapon through mods, effectively allowing you to fire more bullets without consuming extra ammunition."

      The way I understand this, is that when you fire your weapon that instance of your shot has crit chance calculated... Meaning that regardless of how many projectiles come out of your gun the crit chance is calculated only once. Ex. You fire a sobek, all the pellets that land either crit or do not. There is no instance of some critting and some not critting.


      ..No

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    • i am screaming at this thread i dont unterstand a shit

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    • So basically more shots equals more crit chance...

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    • The person above me.  Technically speaking sort of.  It'll increase the chance of you getting a crit in any given scenario. However your over all critical hits, if a large enough sample is recorded, won't be changed.  I.e. you fire 1000 bullets, multishot included, and you fire 1000 bullets without multishot you'll achieve approximately the same number of crits.  You'll just get there faster.

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    • It would still be 10%. Crit doesn't scale with multishot the way status does. Either all your shots crit or none of them do.

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    • Toa of wiki wrote:
      It would still be 10%. Crit doesn't scale with multishot the way status does. Either all your shots crit or none of them do.

      Suuuuure, they either all crit or none of them do ... https://i.imgur.com/ZisYRRK.png

      To get back to the necroed topic: Multishot doesn't increase Critical Chance per se, it only increases the number of shots, but more shots mean you have more chances to see some yellow numbers, it's not technically the same as increasing critical chance though.

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    • A Lone Tenno
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