Talk:Nekros/@comment-71.76.216.64-20170607071935/@comment-25254386-20170607125829

No, that's not how that works.

There is a 1/3 chance to get one of the three components. On your first run you'll get one of the three guaranteed.

On your next runs you have a 1/3 chance to get the same component, and a 2/3 chance to get one of the other two you don't have. That would mean that in order for you, as an individual player, to nearly guarantee (with 99.9% - 99.999% certainty) a hit on that 2/3 chance you would need to do 9±2 additional runs.

So far we have a total of 10±2 runs and two of the three components.

Now there is a 2/3 chance that you could get a component you already have, and only a 1/3 to get the one you don't. So again, in order to nearly guarantee you hit that 1/3 chance at least one you would need to do 23±5 runs

Which actually adds up to a total of 33±7 runs to nearly guarantee every component drops at least once.

So you're right, it wasn't actually 18±6 runs, it's worse. However, I don't have time to run through the reasoning and logic for each and every frame so I just did some quick calculations and edited them in there.