Talk:Thunderbolt/@comment-95.245.99.202-20130610094252/@comment-6138928-20130610112252

I am confused.

Of course TA has to be triggered but the second arrow also got a 30% chance to explode.

So P(2E|TA) = P(E) * P(TA)*P(E) or not?

Because P(2E|TA) = (27/100)*(27/100) would be P(TA)*P(E) * P(TA)*P(E) why should P(TA) be applied twice?