Talk:Sortie/@comment-6384776-20170417082444/@comment-4448946-20170417091624

Lol, you should really learn a little more about statistics. Primarily that probabilities aren't guarantees.

But anyway, let's look at the info you gave. Three weeks of sorties without a riven is 21 days and the probability of not getting a riven is 80.1%. The probability of a string of independent events occurring is equal to the probabilities of each separate event occurring multiplied together. So, the chances of your situation happening are 0.801^21 = ~0.00922 or a little  under 1%.

Therefore, approximately 1 out of every 100 people should go 3 weeks without a single riven. Your situation really isn't that unlikely, you're just the unlucky person.