Talk:Nekros/@comment-71.76.216.64-20170607071935/@comment-104.56.7.222-20170610081744

I believe you may have misunderstood the use of the term "expected" in this case. When discussing probability, the "expected" value is the average number of trials needed for a particular outcome to occur, not the number of trials required to ensure a 99% certainty. For example, if you were asked what is the expected number of coin flips before a heads appears, the answer is clearly two, despite the fact that even after two flips, you still have a 25% chance of heads not appearing at all.

What you're calculating is the number of trials needed to nearly (within 1%) ensure an outcome appears. While this is a valuable result, it's not the "expected" value, and can misrepresent the actual number of trials one would expect to have to find all three pieces. Yes, it certainly can take you 33 runs to find all three pieces, but that result would be exceeding rare.