Talk:Defection/@comment-2A02:582:1098:600:95D7:D3E:1E7:38E1-20170708200258/@comment-126.65.194.11-20170709075807

Chances of an 11.28% chance not occurring in 20 events = (1 - 0.1128)^20 =~ 0.0913

More than 9% of players will do it 20 times without getting it.

And knowing is half the battle!