Talk:Thunderbolt/@comment-95.245.99.202-20130610094252/@comment-95.245.99.202-20130610130242

Hm you're right, I didn't conisder that the second arrow can't create another arrow.

then the right % should be something like:

P(1E|TA) = (27/100)*(73/100)+(30/100)*(70/100) = 40.71%

and P(2E|TA) =  (30/100)*(27/100) = 8.10%

P(1E) = 43.71%

P(2E) = 8.1%

P(0E) = 48.19%