Talk:Thunderbolt/@comment-24447033-20150830063358/@comment-24557530-20150830152216

Nope, i just made the same mistake and added instead of multiplying. Chance for at least one explosion: (exactly one shot) * (explosion) + 2 * (ex. 2 shots) * (one explodes) + (ex 2 shots) * (both explode) = 0.1 * 0.3 + 2 * 0.9 * 0.3 + 0.9 * 0.3^2 = 0.489 so the article is right. 57% is the chance of at least one occuring OR exactly 2 occuring, which isnt a thing as the latter is included in the first quantity.

Wraframe math - serious buisness.