Talk:Xiphos/@comment-23.239.35.101-20160313233317/@comment-23.239.35.101-20160315043228

To answer the people replying to me:


 * The drop rate was determined to be "Legendary".  Which is 0.5% to drop and a 99.5% to drop something else.


 * DaExile you are calculating (p̂) incorrectly. So is the anom person replying to you.

The odds are 0.5% in each tier. You do not add those odds together. Those are separate. The odds are NOT "fractionalised" either- ever. That's like saying by rolling a die six times, then after 6 separate rolls you are guaranteed to have rolled the side with 6pips, one time. Or in this case after running spy missions 8M times that you have a 100% chance to get a drop. No. It never works that way.

Take 100 million random people entering a contest. If they win round 1, they progress to the semi-final. At a 0.5% win rate, ~500,000 will enter the semi-final. Of those 500,000, about 2500 will win twice. The 3rd and final round, 12 or 13 people are expected to win as the expected value is 12.5.

What's the odds of winning this three stage contest if 100 million enter? 1 in 8,000,000. This is how you calculate p-hat (p̂).