Talk:Nekros/@comment-71.76.216.64-20170607071935/@comment-680355-20170720141238

Thank you, your comment eventually inspired me to actually research this. Here is the discussion I started with my process and simulation I ran to check: Discussion here.

Short answer is, you're close to correct. It seems to me the issue is that whoever originally did the math was doing it with the a 98% chance to get all three, which is not the expected number of runs. The Coupon Collector problem model is a close approximation and says the "expected" number of tries is about 6+/-3 runs. I'm on my phone so formatting is not going very well, I'll fix it when I get home, if I can edit.