Talk:Axi L4/@comment-2001:16B8:1048:9900:1960:778E:4320:29C2-20190513105359/@comment-34686600-20190515045639

The first reply above has the correct chance of receiving one or more Axi L4 relics, after four sabotage runs, of 22.75%. Instead of calculating the odds of each possible good outcome and adding them up, we can simply calculate the odds of the bad outcome: 6.25% chance of getting an Axi L4 relic per run (93.75% chance of not getting what we want per run) ^ (4 runs) = 77.25% chance of no Axi L4 relics which leaves a 22.75% chance of getting one or more Axi L4 relics

Calculating the odds of getting a specific number of relics is a bit more complicated: chance ^ relics * (1 - chance) ^ (runs - relics) * runs! / (relics!(runs - relics)!) The chances of receiving one, two, three, or four relics are 20.60%, 2.060%, 0.09155%, and 0.001526%, respectively; which also add up to 22.75%.

Of course, the expected number of runs to obtain a relic is the easiest to calculate: (1 relic) / (6.25% chance of getting a relic during a run) = 16 runs