Talk:Shell Shock/@comment-91.140.157.98-20171029200902/@comment-2A01:CB15:17F:1B00:6D00:980A:E78:7A0E-20171229203628

Except that isn't how it works unless you are purposefully misreading the first message. The first message is clearly speaking of a 100% probability, which is never achieved. We're not talking about expectations, we're talking about probabilities, else it would be worded differently - and without the %. Occuring on average once every twenty-five runs doesn't give any good indication of wether or not someone will get it after 25 runs.

If it is a 4% probability each run, the probability of having 0 Shell Shock after the 25th run is of approximately 36% which absolutely isn't neglectable. Whether in social science or in medicine, people won't take a 36% chance of being wrong, that's way too much.

Someone answering the question with telling someone else to take classes isn't really following proper etiquette, but someone correcting them while also stating that correcting someone mustn't be wrong to be good for you while being wrong is just plain absurd. It's either that or I'm the one misreading the first poster which wouldn't be surprisng due to the extremely low amount of information in his post. However it baffles me to talk about lack of luck when having only a 64% of chance of an event occuring.