Talk:Ruinous Extension/@comment-89.238.128.173-20180811123641/@comment-4448946-20180815022143

Yeah, you aren't even doing that bad yet.

It's a 7.37% drop chance, so a 92.63% chance of it not dropping. Therefore, the probability of it not dropping 40 times is 0.9263^40 = ~0.0469 or ~ 4.69%. That translates to about 1 in 21 that your situation would happen.