Talk:Spy/Rewards/@comment-91.155.165.221-20180523101701/@comment-188.172.152.114-20180606145936

Yeah, 40 runs gives a 95.62% chance of getting the drop. Put another way, that's a 4.38%, or 1 in 22.8 chance of not getting the drop. That is, around one in 23 people who crafted ivara needed in excess of 40 runs to get the drop. Not so uncommon.