Talk:Thunderbolt/@comment-24.23.135.165-20141103015754/@comment-24.237.25.44-20141107081510

Yeah... I thought it seemed wrong as well... although it could be interpreted in different ways.

My thought (could be wrong) was to calculate the possibility a max Thunderbolt & max Split Chamber, working together, would NOT yield any explosion, and work backward from there.

Odds 1st arrow does not explode: 70%

Odds Split Chamber DOES NOT activate (therefore second arrow is never even fired): 10%

So, the total likelihood of the above occuring would be 0.7 * 0.1 = 0.07

____ Next...

Odds 1st arrow does not explode: 70%

Odds Split Chamber DOES activate: 90%

Odds 2nd arrow does not explode: 70%

So, the total likelihood of the above occuring would be 0.7 * 0.9 * 0.7 =  0.441

___ Summed up...

So I then added the 0.07 to the 0.441 = 0.511, which would be 51.5% of no explosions occuring, which means there is a 48.9% chance at least one explosion would occur.

__

Am I way off? lol