Talk:Equinox (Warframe)/@comment-202.140.101.46-20150801090413/@comment-20753550-20150801125106

You can't calculate it yet because we don't know the probabilities of each possible part. Your calculation was under the assumption that the probabilities are equal, in which case your result would be correct, but that assumption is contentious considering that for all boss missions in the solar system rewarding warframe parts, the probabilities are not equal, but instead the systems are less common than chassis and helmet (~38.7% to ~22.6%), which increases the expected number of tries required from 5.5 (which would be for equal chances) to ~6.06.

This is the first time we got 8 rewards in the pool for a boss fight, so we can't make any grounded assumptions how they distributed the chances this time.

For the equal-distribution assumption, the expected number of tries required is 8 * H8  = 21.74.

If the chances are non-equal, the expected number of tries will be greater than that.

Waiting for someone to decompile the reward chances now.